Analyst: To support a valuation of about $1.75 trillion, SpaceX's revenue needs to grow nearly 60 times in the next decade, an unprecedented increase

According to a report by Fortune, David Trainer, CEO of research firm New Constructs, analyzed that to support a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion, SpaceX needs to increase its annual revenue to about $1.1 trillion by 2035, which is nearly a 60-fold increase from $18.7 billion in 2025, equivalent to maintaining an average annual revenue growth rate of about 50% over the next decade.

According to the prospectus previously submitted by SpaceX, the company's revenue in 2025 is projected to be $18.7 billion, with a net loss of $4.9 billion. Trainer calculated based on a discounted cash flow model that if investors want to achieve an annualized return of about 10% over the next decade, SpaceX must achieve the aforementioned growth targets.

Analysis indicates that if it reaches a revenue scale of $1.1 trillion, SpaceX's revenue would account for about 2.4% of the U.S. GDP in 2035, with an economic scale exceeding the entire U.S. utility industry and approaching three-quarters of the U.S. transportation industry.

Trainer stated that although the artificial intelligence market has vast potential, many competitors, including Alphabet, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and OpenAI, are competing for market share, and SpaceX lacks historical precedent to achieve such a scale of growth. He believes that SpaceX could not only become the largest IPO in history but also the most expensive in terms of valuation.