Between Economic Sanctions and Bombings, the US Strategy to Negotiate with Iran

After thirteen consecutive days of bombings over Iran, US President Donald Trump paused the attacks and began exploring indirect contacts with Iran. Besieged by criticism, the extension of the conflict, and the consequences for the global energy market, Washington is debating two scenarios for the future in the Middle East: increasing financial pressure on Tehran or continuing the military escalation.

It is worth noting that in the Memorandum of Understanding signed by both nations on June 17 of this year, the principle of understanding included commitments related to the economic sanctions imposed on Iran. In this context, the United States had committed to granting exemptions to enable exports of oil, derived products, and related services, such as transportation, insurance, and banking operations.

The agreement also stipulated that Washington would advance a timeline for lifting economic restrictions, which was to be established in the final negotiation. Additionally, there was a creation of a mechanism aimed at releasing Iranian funds and assets abroad that were frozen or restricted - between $24 billion and over $100 billion -, under the supervision of an executive monitoring body.

Now, with the intensification of the conflict, internal criticism, and the electoral horizon, the White House is evaluating whether continuing the military advance is the most effective strategy. According to Axios, various officials stated that Washington's financial pressure could hit Iran harder, which is reportedly mired in a gasoline shortage crisis, difficulties in paying its fighters, and the risk of bank runs, according to intelligence reports and sources cited by the aforementioned media.

In this scenario, the United States and Iran are maintaining indirect talks mediated by Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan to try to transform the current pause in hostilities into a lasting ceasefire. One of the main points of discussion is a proposal to grant Iran and Oman a greater role in the management of maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz, which would also imply the possibility of generating income from that activity.

The initiative references the cooperation scheme in the Malacca and Singapore straits, managed by Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia. However, according to a senior US official cited by Axios, there are differences within the Iranian regime regarding the proposal. "Some Iranians want this. Others do not," he noted.

In parallel, Tehran demands guarantees that the US will not launch military attacks on its territory again. Additionally, it demands access to funds through the unblocking of assets and a relief of the sanctions imposed by Washington.

On the US side, Donald Trump maintains a tougher stance. The president is wary of granting concessions to Iran after the interruption of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and demands that it surrender the nuclear material it still possesses.

Regarding the economic aspect, according to US officials, during previous contacts between Iranian representatives and negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, Tehran made it clear that access to financial resources is a priority.

In this context, it was recalled that the Trump administration sanctioned over 1,000 individuals, vessels, and aircraft as part of its renewed maximum pressure campaign. The restrictions primarily target Iranian oil trade, its parallel financial system, arms acquisition, and the maritime transport networks used by the regime.

Despite the economic pressure, within the US administration, they acknowledge that this strategy will require more time to force Iran to negotiate than a large-scale air campaign, an alternative that Trump still refuses to authorize. This prolonged scenario could also have a political cost for the US administration, as it would involve sustaining an unpopular war and dealing with high fuel prices during the midterm election campaign.

The interruption of the bombings also coincided with a warning from the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, about the pressure facing the arsenals of the US Central Command, especially the reserves of air defense interceptors.

For her part, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt stated that Trump continues to favor a diplomatic solution, although he keeps all options open if Iran persists with terrorist activities in the Strait of Hormuz or against US allies.