Gold's Probability of Reaching $5,000 by Year-End Slightly Exceeds 50%

On September 1, international spot gold quickly retraced after rising nearly 10% in August, with market expectations for further gains clearly cooling. Data from Polymarket shows that the probability of gold reaching $5,000 per ounce by year-end is currently just above 50%, while the probability of hitting $4,500 is nearly certain, and the chance of reaching $6,000 has dropped to about 13%; the likelihood of a short-term return to $4,700 is less than one-third. Influenced by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and increasing oil prices, spot gold fell more than 2% on Tuesday, nearing $4,350 per ounce, a significant drop from the previous high of about $4,697. After Fed Chair Waller released hawkish signals at the Jackson Hole conference, market bets on a rate hike in September rose to about 66%, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 4.78%; Brent crude oil surpassed $91 per barrel, further exacerbating inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, the long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact, as concerns over fiscal deficits, government debt expansion, and the purchasing power of the dollar continue to support gold prices. Citigroup expects gold to rise to $5,000 in the next 6 to 12 months and has raised its short-term target to $4,800. Current market focus will shift to U.S. employment and inflation data to determine whether gold bulls can regain momentum.

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