Huatai Securities: Maintain the judgment that the Fed will cut interest rates twice in September and December

Odaily News Huatai Securities said that looking forward, the transmission of tariffs may further push up core commodity inflation, but considering that the job market may slow down later, we maintain the judgment of the Feds two interest rate cuts in September and December. The CPI data in June showed that the inflation of commodities with high import dependence has rebounded, which disproved the claim that overseas exporters cut prices and tariffs are not transmitted. Considering that the weighted import tariff rate in the United States was only 8.7% in May, and some companies have delayed the transmission of prices by consuming inventories, looking forward, we expect that the transmission of tariffs on inflation will become more apparent, which may push up US inflation in the short term. The survey of the New York Fed also confirmed that 88% of manufacturing companies and 82% of service companies chose to pass on tariffs to consumers within 3 months. At the Fed FOMC press conference in June, Powell stated that the Fed needs to observe the impact of tariffs during the summer vacation, and the rebound in inflation may be within the Feds expectations. (Jinshi)