SignalPlus Macro Analysis: The Tariff-Torn M2 Narrative and the Return of TradFi-Style FOMO
原文标题:《SignalPlus 宏观分析特别版:He Said, Xi Said…》
原文来源:SignalPlus 華語


美国持续与全球开展关税边缘政策的对抗,Trump 近日声称已进行「超过 200 场」贸易谈判,并表示他最近与中国国家主席习近平进行了通话。然而,这一说法很快遭到中国驻华盛顿大使馆的驳斥,声明指出「中美之间并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判」,并强调「美方应停止制造混淆」。
政治分析人士认为,低级别的沟通可能持续进行,但能否达成任何实质性的协议令人怀疑,目前生效中的贸易禁运已拖累了上半年的经济增长,我们不认为中美贸易谈判在可预见的未来会有任何清晰的解决方案。

市场在缺乏进一步利空消息的情况下得以回稳,美股上周创下年内第二大单周涨幅,多数非美元宏观资产也收复了自「解放日」以来的大部分跌幅。

波动率和信贷利差也出现了类似的复苏,昂贵的尾部对冲陆续到期,最坏的情境(至少目前)尚未发生。我们预期,风险市场可能会先进一步走高至「不合逻辑」的水平,今年下半年才会重新步入更明显的熊市阶段。
随著各国纷纷切断彼此供应链上的依赖,贸易关系的破裂以及对经济增长的损害是确实存在的。如果未来几年美国经常帐赤字情况开始逆转,全球投资组合也将重新评估对美元的依赖。

有趣的是,从历史模型推算,目前信贷利差定价所隐含的美国经济衰退可能性仅有 20% 左右,另一方面,小型股的疲弱表现则反映出约 70% 的衰退可能性,而美国国债与 SPX 指数则基本上呈现「五五波」,不同资产给出了不同的答案。

目前来看,市场正逐渐恢复正常,就连美国国债也迎来了近两年来最大规模的四周资金流入,投资者纷纷在经济即将放缓前与现时通胀压力持续降温之际大举买入债券。
如我们长期读者所熟知的,对于美债即将崩盘的担忧总是被大幅夸大,事实上,私部门持有的美债规模在 2024 年持续增加,抵消了官方(中央银行)减持的影响,非美国投资者持有的水位也依然维持在相对高档。

最新公布的每周官方活动数据显示,目前尚未出现任何大规模抛售美债的情况,即便市场有所担忧,日本的累计购债规模也依然保持稳定。

另一方面,随著市场风险情绪回升,上周二黄金市场出现了逾 14 年来最大单日资金流出,交易商报告指出当日净卖出超过 13 亿美元。

同样地,美元指数在本届美国总统上任的首 100 天表现疲弱,迎来史上最差开局,兑主要货币跌幅超过 10%,表现甚至比 1973 年 Bretton Woods 体系瓦解时还要糟糕。

更雪上加霜的是,即便油价达到每桶 80 美元,沙特阿拉伯的财政状况也可能从资金贷款方恶化为借款方,使得这个全球最大过剩资本来源之一消失,引发市场对于未来美国庞大债务规模如何持续获得资金支持的疑虑。

Bitcoin 成为美元疲弱行情下的主要受益者,4 月份的表现超越了 Nasdaq 指数与黄金,迎来自 Trump 当选后最佳单周表现之一。

BTC 作为另类避险资产的叙事持续增长,从其主导地位自 2023 年以来稳步上升的趋势可见一斑,这反映的是投资叙事的彻底转变,而非单纯由市场 FOMO 情绪驱动的现象。

随着市场风险情绪改善,ETF 资金流入也出现复苏,连续 6 个交易日录得净流入,从第一季度的低迷中恢复过来,价格也突破了 88 k 附近的下行趋势线。

近期市场上有一个颇为流行的论述,认为 BTC 即将因 M2 货币供应量增加的延迟反应而上涨。尽管我们并不完全认同此观点,因为数据背后存在更多复杂细节,但我们仍对 BTC 的中期走势持乐观态度,预计为因应关税导致的经济放缓,货币和财政政策将有所放松。

与此同时,我们也预期 FOMO 行为有所回归,但不一定会出现在 DeFi 原生领域,近期 Cantor、SoftBank 与 Tether 合作的 Bitcoin SPAC 已经吸引到大量 TradFi 投资者的关注。
需特别留意,FOMO 情绪更可能由 TradFi 市场回流到加密货币市场,而非相反。随著与加密货币挂钩的产品在传统交易平台上日益普及,未来的行情热潮可能由主流投资者行为所推动。

展望本周,美国与欧洲将公布最新 GDP 数据,欧洲地区也将有其他通胀指标出炉,美国非农就业报告则预定于周五发布。日本央行预计将于周四会议上维持利率在 0.5% 不变,而美联储则已进入 5 月 7 日会议前的缄默期。
在股市方面,本周有超过一半的 Mag-7 成员(Microsoft、Meta、Amazon、Apple)将公布财报,而企业 EPS 预测已大幅下修。
预计本周市场将把焦点转向经济数据和企业财报,忽略与贸易相关的噪音。祝各位交易顺利!

You may also like

Morning News | The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission announced the regulatory framework for secondary market trading of tokenized investment products; Strategy increased its holdings by 34,164 bitcoins last week; KAIO completed a strategic fi...

What Is an XRP Wallet? The Best Wallets to Store XRP (2026 Updated)
An XRP wallet lets you safely store, send, and receive XRP on the XRP Ledger. Learn what wallets support XRP and discover the best XRP wallets for beginners and long-term holders in 2026.

What are the Top AI Crypto Coins? Render vs. Akash: 5 Gems Solving the 2026 GPU Crisis
What are the best AI crypto coins for the 2026 cycle? Beyond the hype, we analyze top tokens like RNDR, AKT, and FET that provide real-world solutions to the global GPU shortage and the rise of autonomous agents.

What Is a Token in AI? What Is an AI Token + 3 Gems You Can't Miss in 2026
The era of AI hype has transitioned into an era of utility. As we move through Q2 2026, the market is no longer rewarding "narrative-only" projects. At WEEX Research, we are seeing a massive capital rotation into Decentralized Compute (DePIN) and Autonomous Agent coordination layers. This guide analyzes which AI tokens are capturing institutional liquidity and how to spot high-conviction setups in a maturing market.

Consumer-grade Crypto Global Survey: Users, Revenue, and Track Distribution

Prediction Markets Under Bias

Stolen: $290 million, Three Parties Refusing to Acknowledge, Who Should Foot the Bill for the KelpDAO Incident Resolution?

ASTEROID Pumped 10,000x in Three Days, Is Meme Season Back on Ethereum?

ChainCatcher Hong Kong Themed Forum Highlights: Decoding the Growth Engine Under the Integration of Crypto Assets and Smart Economy

Why can this institution still grow by 150% when the scale of leading crypto VCs has shrunk significantly?

Anthropic's $1 trillion, compared to DeepSeek's $100 billion

Geopolitical Risk Persists, Is Bitcoin Becoming a Key Barometer?

Annualized 11.5%, Wall Street Buzzing: Is MicroStrategy's STRC Bitcoin's Savior or Destroyer?

An Obscure Open Source AI Tool Alerted on Kelp DAO's $292 million Bug 12 Days Ago

Mixin has launched USTD-margined perpetual contracts, bringing derivative trading into the chat scene.
The privacy-focused crypto wallet Mixin announced today the launch of its U-based perpetual contract (a derivative priced in USDT). Unlike traditional exchanges, Mixin has taken a new approach by "liberating" derivative trading from isolated matching engines and embedding it into the instant messaging environment.
Users can directly open positions within the app with leverage of up to 200x, while sharing positions, discussing strategies, and copy trading within private communities. Trading, social interaction, and asset management are integrated into the same interface.
Based on its non-custodial architecture, Mixin has eliminated friction from the traditional onboarding process, allowing users to participate in perpetual contract trading without identity verification.
The trading process has been streamlined into five steps:
· Choose the trading asset
· Select long or short
· Input position size and leverage
· Confirm order details
· Confirm and open the position
The interface provides real-time visualization of price, position, and profit and loss (PnL), allowing users to complete trades without switching between multiple modules.
Mixin has directly integrated social features into the derivative trading environment. Users can create private trading communities and interact around real-time positions:
· End-to-end encrypted private groups supporting up to 1024 members
· End-to-end encrypted voice communication
· One-click position sharing
· One-click trade copying
On the execution side, Mixin aggregates liquidity from multiple sources and accesses decentralized protocol and external market liquidity through a unified trading interface.
By combining social interaction with trade execution, Mixin enables users to collaborate, share, and execute trading strategies instantly within the same environment.
Mixin has also introduced a referral incentive system based on trading behavior:
· Users can join with an invite code
· Up to 60% of trading fees as referral rewards
· Incentive mechanism designed for long-term, sustainable earnings
This model aims to drive user-driven network expansion and organic growth.
Mixin's derivative transactions are built on top of its existing self-custody wallet infrastructure, with core features including:
· Separation of transaction account and asset storage
· User full control over assets
· Platform does not custody user funds
· Built-in privacy mechanisms to reduce data exposure
The system aims to strike a balance between transaction efficiency, asset security, and privacy protection.
Against the background of perpetual contracts becoming a mainstream trading tool, Mixin is exploring a different development direction by lowering barriers, enhancing social and privacy attributes.
The platform does not only view transactions as execution actions but positions them as a networked activity: transactions have social attributes, strategies can be shared, and relationships between individuals also become part of the financial system.
Mixin's design is based on a user-initiated, user-controlled model. The platform neither custodies assets nor executes transactions on behalf of users.
This model aligns with a statement issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on April 13, 2026, titled "Staff Statement on Whether Partial User Interface Used in Preparing Cryptocurrency Securities Transactions May Require Broker-Dealer Registration."
The statement indicates that, under the premise where transactions are entirely initiated and controlled by users, non-custodial service providers that offer neutral interfaces may not need to register as broker-dealers or exchanges.
Mixin is a decentralized, self-custodial privacy wallet designed to provide secure and efficient digital asset management services.
Its core capabilities include:
· Aggregation: integrating multi-chain assets and routing between different transaction paths to simplify user operations
· High liquidity access: connecting to various liquidity sources, including decentralized protocols and external markets
· Decentralization: achieving full user control over assets without relying on custodial intermediaries
· Privacy protection: safeguarding assets and data through MPC, CryptoNote, and end-to-end encrypted communication
Mixin has been in operation for over 8 years, supporting over 40 blockchains and more than 10,000 assets, with a global user base exceeding 10 million and an on-chain self-custodied asset scale of over $1 billion.

$600 million stolen in 20 days, ushering in the era of AI hackers in the crypto world

Vitalik's 2026 Hong Kong Web3 Summit Speech: Ethereum's Ultimate Vision as the "World Computer" and Future Roadmap

On the same day Aave introduced rsETH, why did Spark decide to exit?
Morning News | The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission announced the regulatory framework for secondary market trading of tokenized investment products; Strategy increased its holdings by 34,164 bitcoins last week; KAIO completed a strategic fi...
What Is an XRP Wallet? The Best Wallets to Store XRP (2026 Updated)
An XRP wallet lets you safely store, send, and receive XRP on the XRP Ledger. Learn what wallets support XRP and discover the best XRP wallets for beginners and long-term holders in 2026.
What are the Top AI Crypto Coins? Render vs. Akash: 5 Gems Solving the 2026 GPU Crisis
What are the best AI crypto coins for the 2026 cycle? Beyond the hype, we analyze top tokens like RNDR, AKT, and FET that provide real-world solutions to the global GPU shortage and the rise of autonomous agents.
What Is a Token in AI? What Is an AI Token + 3 Gems You Can't Miss in 2026
The era of AI hype has transitioned into an era of utility. As we move through Q2 2026, the market is no longer rewarding "narrative-only" projects. At WEEX Research, we are seeing a massive capital rotation into Decentralized Compute (DePIN) and Autonomous Agent coordination layers. This guide analyzes which AI tokens are capturing institutional liquidity and how to spot high-conviction setups in a maturing market.






