Week 14 On-Chain Data: Tariff Winds Intensify Market Chaos: Where Should Bitcoin Make Its Next Move?

Original Article Title: "Tariff Waves Intensify Market Chaos, On-Chain Signals Hard to Trust: Where Should Bitcoin Make Its Next Move? | WTR 4.14"
Original Source: WTR Research Institute

Weekly Recap

From April 7th to April 14th, Bitcoin reached a high near $86,100 and a low near $74,508, with a fluctuation range of approximately 15.56%.

Looking at the distribution of chips, a large number of chips were traded around 80,000, providing some support or resistance.

• Analysis:

1. 60000-68000: Approximately 1.51 million coins;
2. 76000-89000: Approximately 1.72 million coins;
3. 90000-100000: Approximately 1.99 million coins;

• The probability of not breaking below 70,000 to 75,000 in the short term is 70%;
• The probability of not breaking above 85,000 to 90,000 in the short term is 80%.

Key News Highlights

Economic News

• Goldman Sachs has raised its 2025 gold target price from $3,300/ounce to $3,700/ounce (a 12% increase).
• Fed Governor Waller believes that the high inflation caused by tariffs is temporary. In a scenario of small-scale tariffs, rate cuts may take place in the second half of the year. In a large-scale tariff scenario, if the economy significantly slows down, there may be a preference for earlier and larger rate cuts.

US Economic Data and Expectations:

• The New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectation for March in the US rose to 3.58% (higher than the expected 3.26% and previous value of 3.13%).
• The New York Fed expects the US unemployment rate in March to rise to the highest since April 2020.
• March CPI inflation fell to 2.4%. Tariff Policy and Its Impact:
• Over the weekend, Trump's tariff measures changed again, exempting some electronic products from "reciprocal tariffs."
• Economists believe the exemption was made due to the realization that the tariff shock and its resulting chain reaction touched a sore spot.
• Analysis suggests the exemption is a sign of US concessions, possibly under pressure from the bond market (the bond market is seen as Trump's top priority).
• Analyst James Van Straten believes that Trump's tariff uncertainty triggered a market sell-off starting on April 3rd.
• Fox reporter Charles Gasparino believes that the market's reaction to the "Tim Apple Tariff Exemption" will be positive and may boost the Nasdaq.

• Investors widely consider the tariff plan to be one of the worst policies in recent years. Trump's erratic tariff measures have shaken market confidence in U.S. policy and the economy.

U.S. Treasury Market:

• JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expressed readiness to deal with the turmoil in the nearly $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market, believing the Fed would only intervene during market panics.
• Last Friday, the U.S. Treasury market experienced a $29 trillion sell-off, marking the worst week of 2019.
• Looking back at March 2020, a U.S. Treasury market collapse forced the Fed to undertake trillions of dollars in bond purchases to intervene.

Economic Recession Concerns:

• BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned that the U.S. economic recession may have already begun, with economic pressures and protectionist trade policies being key driving factors.

Market Focus and Outlook:

• Market focus may shift from tariff headwinds to rate cut expectations, signaling a potential change in market sentiment.
• Easing inflationary pressures could provide room for Fed rate cuts in the May and June meetings and relaxing financial conditions.
• Analysts are watching for when the Fed will intervene in the market.

Cryptocurrency Ecosystem News:

• U.S. Senator Tim Scott expects the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act to become law by August 2025.
• The Senate Banking Committee advanced the Stablecoin Regulation Act "GENIUS Act" in March 2025, prioritizing crypto policy, emphasizing innovation over regulation to preserve U.S. leadership.
• SEC Acting Director Mark Uyeda indicated a consideration for establishing a short-term crypto regulatory framework to allow for innovation while developing a permanent solution to promote blockchain innovation.

Institutional and Corporate Developments:

• BlackRock's BUIDL Fund reached $2.372 billion in size, posting a 25.07% weekly gain.
• Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated a 13% increase in stablecoin users in Q1 2025.
• Japanese publicly traded company Metaplanet Inc. announced the acquisition of 319 BTC.
• MicroStrategy acquired $2.858 billion worth of BTC (equivalent to 3459 BTC) from April 7th to April 13th.
• Tether minted $1 billion in new stablecoins on April 12th.

Market Insights and Analysis:

• White House President's Working Group on Financial Markets Executive Director Bo Hines (as reported by Cointelegraph) indicated the need to accumulate BTC as soon as possible before it becomes more expensive.
• Analyst James Van Straten pointed out that the BTC/VIX ratio has touched a long-term trend line, historical data shows that this often precedes a BTC price bottom (prior effective time points: August 2024, March 2020, August 2015). If the support holds, BTC may have already established a long-term bottom.
• JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon believes that the turmoil in the U.S. bond market and subsequent Fed interventions may lead investors to turn to BTC as a hedge against currency instability (similar to the situation in 2020).
• Analysts believe that an economic slowdown may prompt the Fed to change its tightening policy, triggering new liquidity and becoming a major catalyst for BTC and other crypto assets.
• Looking back at March 2020 when the Fed intervened in the bond market, the crypto market also experienced a significant increase.

Long-Term Insight: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull Market/Bear Market/Structural Changes/Neutral State

Medium-Term Exploration: Used to analyze the stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what circumstances we will face

Short-Term Observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the emergence of certain directions and the likelihood of certain events under certain conditions

Long-Term Insight

• Holder Structure and Belief HODL Wave
• ETF's Structural Impact
• Illiquidity of Long-Term Whales
• Trading Platform Status of Major Whales

(Below Image Holder Structure and Belief HODL Wave)

After experiencing multiple market cycles, the group of long-term holders (LTH) continues to grow, constituting the market's "ballast."

Although some old coins (e.g., 2 y-5 y) have moved during price peaks (taking profits), those holding the oldest coins (e.g.,>5 y, purple area) have remained relatively stable and have even slightly thickened during recent consolidation. This indicates that the most steadfast long-term holders have not panicked and sold off due to recent fluctuations. Their holdings provide a solid underlying support for the market.

The core narrative of the HODL Wave Chart is the continuous maturation of supply. Over time, newly incoming supply (warm colors) gradually ages (turns into cool colors) and is absorbed by stronger-handed holders. The current period of consolidation, while putting pressure on short-term holders, also provides a time window for more Bitcoin to move from short-term holders to medium to long-term holders, setting the stage for a healthier uptrend in the future.

(Structural Impact of ETF in the Following Chart)

Although ETF inflows have weakened recently, the current slowdown in inflows can be seen as a normalization after the initial excitement and a reaction to the current macro uncertainties.

As long as the macro environment improves or new market catalysts emerge, the ETF channel could quickly become a significant source of incremental capital. Its mere existence enhances Bitcoin's maturity as an asset class and long-term appeal.

(Long-term Whales of Illiquidity in the Following Chart)

The Illiquid Supply Shock Ratio (ISSR) exhibits clear cyclical patterns. Historically, sustained ISSR growth (orange line rising, blue zone positive) has often accompanied the accumulation phase of a bull market. The current plateau period indicates that strong hodling momentum remains intact.

(Trading Platform Status of Large Whales in the Following Chart)

Intensifying Divergence, Not Unidirectional Selling: Current net inflows coexist with net outflows, reflecting the disagreements and complex maneuvers among major players (whales).

• On one hand, some early profit-takers or whales concerned about the macro picture are moving tokens to exchanges during rebounds (net inflows), exerting selling pressure.
• On the other hand, there are also whales actively withdrawing from exchanges during price pullbacks (net outflows), typically seen as bullish long-term accumulation behavior.

This divergence is likely to persist for some time. Clarification of the mid-term trend requires observation of which force predominates: continuous net inflows suppressing the price or net outflows beginning to dominate, indicating whales are reinitiating large-scale accumulation. Of course, even in the presence of short-term selling, whales accumulating at key support levels or when they believe the value is undervalued (net outflows) is a crucial prerequisite for the market to bottom out and start the next major uptrend.

Outlook:

On-chain data paints a picture of short-term volatility, medium-term significance, and long-term structural optimism:

• Short Term: The market is in a consolidation phase, ETF momentum is weakening, and divergent behavior among whales is leading to a tug of war between bulls and bears. Prices may continue to fluctuate or face a retracement risk. It is crucial to monitor macro-environmental changes and marginal improvements in on-chain supply-demand indicators.

• Medium Term: Whether the market can resume an uptrend depends on:

1. Favorable macro-environmental shifts (such as interest rate cuts);
2. Whether ETF fund flows can sustain continuous inflows;
3. Whether whales shift from divergence to net accumulation (continual net outflows from exchanges);
4. Whether illiquid whales are growing again;
5. Within the HODL wave, whether the supply can further mature, relieving pressure from short-term holders.

Therefore, while facing short-term challenges and volatility, from a medium to long-term perspective, as long as the core on-chain structure (such as LTH holdings, supply maturity) remains intact, and new demand-driving factors (potentially from macro improvements, continued ETF adoption, or new market narratives) emerge, the crypto market (especially Bitcoin) still has the potential for continued growth.

Medium-Term Exploration

• Whale Composite Score
• Short-Term Profit Percentage Composite Model
• VDD
• Price Structure Analysis at Various Levels
• Network Sentiment Positivity

(Whale Composite Score Chart Below)

Whales have been extensively involved in the market recently and are currently an important holding group within the ecosystem.

(Short-Term Profit Percentage Composite Model Chart Below)

The short-term profit structure remains relatively healthy, showing no signs of excessive profits in a stock environment (i.e., the green sell-off zone). The current participant issue may lie in the overall shift between positive and negative states. Relatively neutral, the tense macro environment is also continually shaping the boundaries of market participants' choices.

(VDD Chart Below)

The current area is still a holding area with relatively good risk-reward ratio. The selling pressure from high-weighted entities remains constrained within a specified range. As the process of gradually restoring the pricing model progresses on-chain, de-leveraging activities may become less frequent. This would be a relatively good holding position.

(See the Price Structure Analysis below)

In the short term, the market has gradually moved away from oversold levels (79,000), but the main issue currently on-chain is not the selling pressure. It is instead the sustained buying power and the level of liquidity recovery.

(See Network Sentiment below)

The network sentiment has been fluctuating, oscillating between positive and negative. In a tense gaming environment, on-chain participants also appear indecisive overall. From a liquidity perspective, a consistent direction has not yet emerged.

Short-Term Observations

• Derivative Risk Index
• Options Intention-to-Trade Ratio
• Derivatives Trading Volume
• Options Implied Volatility
• Profit and Loss Transfer Amount
• New and Active Addresses
• Net Longs on Clementine Exchange
• Net Longs on Elderberry Exchange
• High-Weighted Selling Pressure
• Global Buying Power Status
• Stablecoin Exchange Net Longs
• Off-chain Exchange Data

Derivatives Rating: The Risk Index is in the red zone, indicating an increase in derivative risk.

(See Derivative Risk Index below)

Last week, the market experienced a rapid decline, and with the rebound, the Risk Index has once again entered the red zone. As market sentiment has not fully recovered, it is expected that this week, derivatives will likely undergo a "long and short double burst."

(See Options Intention-to-Trade Ratio below)

The ratio and volume of put options have both declined, but the current put options ratio remains high.

(Derivative Trading Volume Chart)

Derivative trading volume has dropped to a relative low, but the derivative market is destined to not remain calm this week.

(Options Implied Volatility Chart)

Options implied volatility has experienced rapid fluctuations in the short term. Sentiment rating: Neutral

(Profit and Loss Transfer Amount Chart)

It was mentioned last week that if the orange line (panic selling) touches the phase peak again, it would be a relatively good buy-the-dip trading range. This week, both market panic and positive sentiment have once again receded, and the expected future rebound may be limited even in the short term.

(New and Active Addresses Chart)

New active addresses are at a medium to low level. Spot market and selling pressure structure rating: Both BTC and ETH have seen significant outflows.

(Citrus Swap Exchange Net Flow)

Currently, BTC has seen significant outflows.

(Ethereum Exchange Net Flow)

Currently, ETH has seen significant outflows.

(Heavy Selling Pressure)

Heavy selling pressure has eased.
Buying Power Rating: Global buying power is in a slight recovery state, stablecoin buying power is showing a minor rebound.

(Global Purchasing Power Status)

The global purchasing power has currently shifted from a declining trend to a very weak rebound.

(USDT Exchange Net Flow)

The stablecoin purchasing power has seen a slight recovery.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is buying interest at 75000; there is selling interest at 90000.

(Coinbase Off-chain Data)

There is buying interest around 70000-75000;
There is selling interest at 90000.

(Binance Off-chain Data)

There is buying interest around 70000-75000;
There is selling interest at 90000.

(Bitfinex Off-chain Data)

There is buying interest around 76000;

Weekly Summary:

News Summary:

The current market situation is a mix of severe macroeconomic uncertainty and structural developments within the crypto asset space. The U.S. economy is facing recession concerns (yield curve inversion warning, rising joblessness expectations) and potential inflationary pressures (tariff impacts, previous inflation data), leading to highly uncertain Fed rate policy trajectory, becoming a core market focus. Significant volatility in the U.S. Treasury market (Dimon's warning, recent sell-offs) and the unpredictable tariff policy further exacerbate market confidence wobbles on the economic and policy front, boosting safe-haven assets (gold hitting record highs) and dampening risk appetite.

In this context, although the cryptocurrency market is under pressure, it has shown internal resilience: the U.S. regulatory environment is becoming clearer (infrastructure bill, stablecoin bill advancing), institutions continue to enter (BlackRock fund growth, MicroStrategy increasing holdings), simple metrics (on-chain data) suggest a potential bottom, and the stablecoin ecosystem remains active.

Looking ahead, the trajectory of cryptocurrency will heavily depend on macroeconomic developments: if an economic slowdown prompts the Fed to cut interest rates and inject liquidity, while regulation continues to advance, the crypto market is expected to benefit from a risk-on sentiment recovery and the potential "digital gold" narrative; conversely, if stubborn inflation or severe recession leads to persistent tightening or extreme risk aversion, the crypto market faces significant downside risk. Therefore, although the cryptocurrency industry's fundamentals are improving, its short-term performance is still expected to closely follow macroeconomic trends and Fed policy, with high market volatility expected to persist.

On-chain Long-term Insights:

1. The growth rate of illiquid supply has recently significantly slowed down, indicating that the marginal accumulation momentum of long-term whales is weakening at a high level;

2. Although the long-term holder base appears stable, the supply aging rate is slowing down, and short-term holders account for a higher proportion, signaling a market entering a period of structural adjustment;
3. Large fund flows on exchanges show a significant two-way tug-of-war, reflecting that large holders have clear disagreements and game theory at the current price level;
4. The outflow pressure of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF funds has weakened, with recent periods even showing unstable inflows and outflows coexisting, indicating that selling pressure and demand coexist.

• Market Outlook:

Selling pressure and buying demand coexist.
The current market is at a critical stage of consolidation near highs, with bulls and bears fiercely battling around key price levels.
Therefore, in the short term, the market may continue its oscillating adjustment pattern, with the future direction highly dependent on the clarification of macroeconomic signals and the emergence of new demand catalysts.

On-chain Mid-term Exploration:

1. Whales have become an important market holding group.
2. Short-term profits are healthy, with emotions shifting.
3. Current price level has high holding value, and selling pressure is declining.
4. Currently above oversold levels (79000), buying power is waiting to increase.
5. Market sentiment is swinging, with liquidity direction unclear.

• Market Tone:

Lingering
The market has a large support group but is still hovering overall, with uncertain and swinging emotions. A relatively choppy assessment may align with the current tone.

On-Chain Short-Term Observations:

1. The risk factor is in the red zone, increasing the risk of derivatives.
2. New active addresses are relatively low.

3. Market sentiment rating: Neutral.
4. Net headroom on exchanges shows significant outflows of both BTC and ETH.
5. Global purchasing power is slightly rebounding, with stablecoin purchasing power showing a minor increase.
6. Off-chain transaction data indicates buying interest at 75000; selling interest at 90000.
7. In the short term, the probability of not dropping below 70000-75000 is 70%; with an 80% probability of not rising above 85000-90000 in the short term.

• Market Tone:

For BTC, the short-term market is quite "calm," even in the face of significant volatility, without triggering true panic selling.

Short-Term Outlook

This week, the derivative market may experience significant volatility, with prices potentially facing resistance at the short-term holder cost line (92k).

Risk Advisory:

The above is all market discussion and exploration, not investment advice; please be cautious and guard against market black swan risks.

This article is a submission and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.