Dollar: BCRA bought only 1% of the volume traded in the market and reserves fell by $111 million

The Central Bank (BCRA) kept its daily dollar purchases in the Free Exchange Market (MLC) at a limited level, in a context of reduced currency supply relative to demand. Meanwhile, gross international reserves fell again by more than $100 million.

The monetary authority reported that this Thursday, September 10, it ended with a net result in the MLC of only $6 million, which represented only 1.1% of the volume traded. Similarly, the daily average for this week is only $9 million. So far this month, the balance is $118 million, while purchases in 2026 reached $14.213 billion.

This Thursday, the official wholesale dollar broke a streak of five consecutive days without declines, falling by $1 to close at $1,513. Thus, the gap with the ceiling of the band again exceeded 25%.

In this context, gross reserves fell by $111 million, down to $50.506 billion. This occurred on a day when the price of gold lost 0.4%, to $4,385.4 per ounce.

The market warns that this is related to the global rise of the dollar, awaiting inflation data in the US. Additionally, they anticipate an even higher yield on US bonds, despite the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's buyback attempts. It is worth noting that the increase in bond yields usually puts pressure on gold, as it raises the opportunity cost of holding this asset, which does not earn interest.

On the local front, the highlighted data was that INDEC reported inflation of 1.7% in August, below previous months and in line with market expectations. While the decrease is good news, it is also true that core inflation, which does not account for seasonal factors or regulated prices, remained stable at 1.8%.

A calmer CPI also relieves pressure on the exchange rate, as the adjustment required to avoid further appreciation also eases. Starting from the first business day of October, the daily movement of the ceiling of the band will be governed by August inflation, at 1.7%, so it will gradually advance throughout the sessions until it is close to $1,952.08 on the last trading day of the month.

It is worth remembering that the pace of reserve purchases by the BCRA has been losing weight, after reaching a peak of nearly $2.6 billion monthly in May. The monetary authority estimates that there is a remainder of $4.4 billion in corporate and provincial debt placements that have not yet entered the MLC, which represents a potential additional source of currency supply for the coming months.

However, not all of that amount will necessarily reach the exchange market, considering that there are $2.3 billion in dollar financial maturities and announced buybacks during the third and fourth quarters, commitments that could absorb part of the funds raised.